We overestimate our control over random events
Humans frequently fall prey to the illusion of control, believing they can influence random outcomes more than evidence suggests, shaping risky decisions in everyday life and costing billions.
Humans often believe they can influence purely random outcomes, a cognitive bias called the illusion of control. Psychologist Ellen Langer first identified this in 1975, finding that people who chose their own lottery tickets felt more confident, despite identical odds to those given tickets randomly. This bias makes us apply skill-based thinking to chance events.
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